Value betting
A bet can make money two ways: worse hands call, or better hands fold. A value bet is a bet whose profit comes mainly from the first — you bet expecting to get called, and to win the showdown when you are. A bluff is the opposite: the profit is the fold, and getting called is the bad news. Plenty of real bets sit between the two, profiting a little from each.
The number that decides which kind of bet you're making is your equity against the hands that call — not against everything your opponent arrived at the street with. Betting filters their range: when you bet for value, the folds come disproportionately from the hands you already beat, so your equity against the calling range is typically lower than against the full range. Typically, not always — when an opponent also raises with their strongest hands, the range that just flat-calls is capped, and the comparison can flip. Either way, the calling range is the one your bet is actually played against, so it's the one the bar is measured on.
This app draws the line where the definition does. A bet or raise keeping at or above 50% equity against the hands that call is literally ahead of the range that continues — the feedback names it a value bet. Below 25% the fold is doing essentially all the work, and the feedback walks through the pure-bluff breakeven math and tags the line as a bluff. In between, the feedback names both profit sources: folds now, plus real equity when called.
Thin value lives just above the 50% bar: you're ahead of the calling range, but not by much, and sizing decides whether you stay ahead. Bigger bets fold out more of the weak part of an opponent's range, so the range that calls a big bet is stronger than the range that calls a small one — the same hand can be a comfortable value bet for a third of the pot and a coin flip for two pots. Sizing for value is aiming at the calling range you want: small enough that worse hands keep paying, big enough that they pay as much as they're willing to.
The same bet, three strengths — the grader's own words
Betting 4bb into 10bb with expected folds ~35%, at three different strengths against the calling range. Each feedback line below is rendered by the exact code that writes your postflop bet feedback, so this page and your grades can never disagree.
| Tier | Equity vs the hands that call | What the feedback says |
|---|---|---|
| Value Most of what continues still loses to you — the call itself is the profit. | ~65% | Betting 4bb into 10bb: the hands that call still leave you ~65% equity, and we expect folds ~35% here on top — a value bet. |
| Folds plus equity Behind the calling range but far from hopeless — folds and live equity share the work. | ~35% | Betting 4bb into 10bb: the model prices in the expected ~35% folds and the ~35% equity you keep when called. |
| Bluff Almost everything that calls beats you — the fold is the whole plan. | ~15% | Betting 4bb into 10bb: this is a bluff — a no-equity bluff would need the defending range to fold ~29% of the time for break even, we expect about 35%, and called hands still leave you ~15% equity — priced honestly. |
The bar moves with the table. Multiway, several ranges continue at once, so the hands that call are collectively stronger and value thresholds tighten — top pair, decent kicker is thin value heads-up and often a check three ways (the Multiway pots page walks through why). And against an opponent whose range is capped — say they've checked twice and the slowplayed monsters are discounted — the value window widens: bigger sizes keep getting paid by the second-best hands that were always calling.